Recent Research: Working Papers

updated on May 2, 2016
Please contact Prof. Hironori Kato (kato@civil.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp) for referring to the following working papers.

Lu, Y., Shibasaki, R, and Kato, H.: Potential impacts of international maritime transportation policies on the Pacific Region, May, 2016 [PDF]
Abstract
This paper develops a model to simulate international cargo flows for the Pacific region and examines the potential impacts of policies and investments. First, a model is formulated assuming the user equilibrium principle in a network assignment and considering vessel capacity under the given shipping demand between ports. Next, the model is calibrated with existing databases and local data that are collected through a field survey. The developed model successfully reproduces observed transshipment at worldwide ports, including Pacific ports. Subsequently, the model is applied to three possible scenarios in 2030: the port development scenario, the Honolulu shipping service scenario, and the vessel enlargement scenario. From the scenario analysis, implications are derived regarding future regional trade patterns, inter-port competition, priority of port development, influence of new shipping services, and impacts of vessel enlargement. The results are expected to contribute to policy development regarding the maritime freight transportation in the Pacific region.
Keywords: Pacific region, international maritime container, freight network assignment, port development, maritime shipping service, vessel enlargement

Wetwitoo, J. and Kato, H.: Inter-regional transportation and economic development: A case study of regional agglomeration economies in Japan, Mar., 2016 [PDF]
Abstract
This study investigates the benefit from transportation to economy through agglomeration. We analyze empirically the impacts of agglomeration on regional economic return using an econometric approach assuming three types of agglomeration economics: localization agglomeration, urbanization agglomeration, and mixed agglomeration. We estimate the agglomeration elasticities of 11 industries using inter-regional transportation network data and regional socio-economic panel data for 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006, covering 47 prefectures in Japan. Our results show that, on average, the indirect benefit of productivity improvement through localization agglomeration tends to be more significant than that through urbanization agglomeration. We also find that while mining enjoys significant benefit from urbanization rather than localization agglomeration and the transportation/communication industry enjoys significant benefit from localization rather than urbanization agglomeration, finance/insurance and real estate might benefit from both agglomeration economies. We further find negative elasticities in the agriculture and service industries; this could be partly due to the industries’ characteristics.
Keywords: Inter-regional transportation, economic development, agglomeration, Japan, panel data

Abe, R. and Kato, H.: Growth of distance traveled and convergence across global cities, Feb., 2016 [PDF]
Abstract
Slower growth rates of passenger travel have recently been reported in many developed economies. This paper describes the long-run growth of the urban transportation market in an attempt to understand the current situation in this regard. First, assuming that the distance traveled represents the market size for urban transportation, this study sets a hypothesis that the initial gap of distance traveled per capita across cities could have narrowed over time under current transportation technologies (i.e., car and modern transit). Next, this study verified the convergence of distance traveled per capita empirically using a global city dataset that covers developed economies from 1960 to 2000. The results showed that distance traveled per capita converged in the postwar period across cities with/without controls that represent cities’ characteristics. Further, the modal share of a city did not affect the growth rate of distance traveled per capita; U.S. cities had a higher growth rate in the postwar period; and a lower population density of a city increased the growth rate of per capita distance traveled.
Keywords: Distance traveled, urban transportation, long-run analysis, international comparison

Kato, H.: Challenges of Tokyo’s urban rail for better-coordinated service, Sep., 2015 [PDF]
Abstract
This study reports three cases pertaining to efforts made for better coordination between the private sector and/or between the public and private sectors in the urban rail market in Tokyo, which has a relatively long history of a private-oriented market. They are direct-through rail operations between suburban rails and metros since the 1970s, Barrier-Free Act in 2000 and related subsidy schemes, and Act to Enhance the Convenience of Urban Railways in 2005. Then, implications are drawn from these cases and further issues are raised regarding market regulations and the role of the government in the PT market.
Keywords: motorcycle ban, urban travel demand, developing city, Yangon

Inaba H. and Kato, H.: Impacts of motorcycle demand management in Yangon, Myanmar, Sep., 2015 [PDF]
Abstract
This study analyzes the potential impacts of motorcycle demand management and its contribution to the transportation market in Yangon, Myanmar, where motorcycles have been banned since 2003. A vehicle ownership model with travel demand models of modal choice, destination choice, and trip frequency is estimated using a dataset comprising 8,289 households and 24,373 trips in Yangon, compiled by the Japan International Cooperation Agency in 2013. Next, a traffic demand forecast system is developed in which a traffic assignment model is integrated with a vehicle ownership model and travel demand models to evaluate the impacts of the motorcycle ban. Then, the expected impacts of the motorcycle ban are estimated by comparing multiple scenarios for 2013 and 2035. The results show that the ban could reduce traffic volume and vehicle kilometers traveled by approximately 18.0% and 26.9% in 2013, but only 4.5% and 6.0% in 2035. In other words, the ban significantly contributes to the mitigation of the current urban transportation problems; however, it would promote car ownership and the substitution of motorcycles in line with income growth, wiping out the effects of reduced motorcycle trips in the future. These findings suggest that developing cities should consider the long-term dynamics of motorcycle demand management.
Keywords: motorcycle ban, urban travel demand, developing city, Yangon

Full CV｜Short CV |Others